全球通货膨胀，钢材价格创下近10年新高，第二季度钢材价格还会上涨。

Global inflation, steel prices hit a new high in nearly 10 years, and steel prices will rise in the second quarter.

新冠疫情在西方国家不断蔓延，我国经济稳定复苏，国内大部分企业自2020年下半年开始逐步恢复正常生产，钢铁以及其它大宗商品材料需求逐步恢复。美国为了保民生不断印钞发钱导致通胀等因素密不可分。随着我国两新一重建设有序推进，促进消费措施不断落地，钢材价格仍有较强的支撑，维持高位运行的态势还将持续。然而，全球财政赤字有增无减，国际环境不确定性上升，原料成本压力不断向下游传递，企业经营难度增加，风险成本升高，无论是钢铁企业还是下游企业依然是在挑战中寻求机会。

COVID-19 continues to spread in western countries, and China's economy has recovered steadily. Most of the enterprises in China have gradually resumed normal production since the second half of 2020, and demand for steel and other commodity materials has gradually resumed. In order to protect people's livelihood, the United States continues to print and issue money, which leads to inflation and other factors. With the orderly progress of China's two new and one heavy construction and the continuous implementation of consumption promotion measures, steel prices still have strong support, and the trend of maintaining high operation will continue. However, the global fiscal deficit has increased unabated, the uncertainty of the international environment has increased, the pressure of raw material cost has been continuously transmitted to the downstream, the operation difficulty of enterprises has increased, and the risk cost has increased. Both iron and steel enterprises and downstream enterprises are still looking for opportunities in the challenge.

5月6日消息，澳大利亚联邦政府某些人士基于冷战思维和意识形态偏见，推出系列干扰破坏两国正常交流合作的举措。消息一出钢铁价格出现了新一轮大幅度涨价，单五一假期5天时间乐从钢材价格上涨了350~400元/吨，目前热轧平直钢板均价6000元/吨，1.0*1250冷轧钢板6550元/吨，1.0*1219热镀锌钢板6700元/吨，目前华南华北钢铁价格差价逐步缩小，市场资源紧张，短期内价格以上涨为主导方向。

On May 6, some people in the Australian federal government launched a series of measures to interfere with and undermine the normal exchanges and cooperation between the two countries based on the Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice. As soon as the news came out, there was a new round of substantial price increase in steel prices. The price of Lecong steel increased by 350 ~ 400 yuan / ton in the five days of May Day holiday. At present, the average price of hot-rolled flat steel plate is 6000 yuan / ton, 1.0 * 1250 cold-rolled steel plate is 6550 yuan / ton, and 1.0 * 1219 hot-dip galvanized steel plate is 6700 yuan / ton. At present, the price difference between South China and North China has gradually narrowed, and the market resources are tight, In the short term, the price rise is the leading direction.

截至目前，澳大利亚正常向中国市场出口的商品仅剩下铁矿石一项，其他包括煤炭、木材、葡萄酒、大麦和海鲜在内的对华出口重要商品都陷入彻底停滞状态。

Up to now, Australia's normal exports to the Chinese market are only iron ore, and other important exports to China, including coal, timber, wine, barley and seafood, have fallen into a complete stagnation.

据海关总署数据，4月我国出口钢材797.4万吨，创2016年12月以来的月度出口量新高。前4个月我国出口钢材2565.4万吨，增加24.5%；前4个月我国进口铁矿砂3.82亿吨，增加6.7%；煤9012.6万吨，减少28.8%。

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China exported 7.974 million tons of steel in April, the highest monthly export volume since December 2016. In the first four months, China exported 25.654 million tons of steel, an increase of 24.5%; In the first four months, China imported 382 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 6.7%; 90.126 million tons of coal, a decrease of 28.8%.

2021年5月1日，取消部分钢铁产品出口退税正式实施了！此次调整将适当提高硅铁、铬铁、高纯生铁等产品的出口关税，调整后分别实行25%出口税率、20%出口暂定税率、15%出口暂定税率。本次钢铁产品进口关税调整涉及20个税则号列，包括生铁和还原铁，钢坯钢锭、再生钢铁原料和铬铁等四大类，税率分别由1%和2%统一调整为零关税。

On May 1, 2021, the cancellation of export tax rebates for some steel products was officially implemented! The adjustment will appropriately increase the export tariffs of ferrosilicon, ferrochromium, high-purity pig iron and other products. After the adjustment, the export tax rate of 25%, the provisional export tax rate of 20% and the provisional export tax rate of 15% will be implemented respectively. The import tariff adjustment of iron and steel products involves 20 tariff lines, including pig iron and reduced iron, billet and ingot, recycled iron and steel raw materials and ferrochrome. The tax rate is adjusted from 1% and 2% to zero tariff respectively.

总结：钢价上涨不是孤立的，铁矿和焦炭价格都在涨。所以就钢价上涨对于钢企来说多半是涨了个寂寞。另外，节前商务部取消了钢铁出口退税和进口关税。从这一政策带来的结果不难看出，这一招就是要通过减进口关税增加进口，通过增加出口关税减少出口，增加国内的钢铁供给来平抑钢价。政策出手抑制钢价上涨，说明钢价的上涨已经超过其容忍度。不排除钢价还会有阶段性的偶尔的涨，但是每一次涨都是在挑战政策的容忍底线，而这种挑战的换来的必然是逐步趋严的控价政策。

Conclusion: the rise of steel price is not isolated. The prices of iron ore and coke are rising. Therefore, the rise in steel prices is mostly lonely for steel enterprises. In addition, before the festival, the Ministry of Commerce cancelled the export tax rebate and import tariff of steel. From the results of this policy, it is not difficult to see that this move is to increase imports by reducing import tariffs, reduce exports by increasing export tariffs and increase domestic steel supply to stabilize steel prices. The policy action to curb the rise of steel prices shows that the rise of steel prices has exceeded its tolerance. It is not ruled out that steel prices will rise periodically and occasionally, but each rise is challenging the bottom line of policy tolerance, and this challenge must be replaced by a gradually stricter price control policy.